EU biomethane demand from gas mobility will increase from 5 TWh today to 117 TWh by 2030  

The Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association (NGVA Europe) predicts that EU biomethane demand from gas mobility will increase from 5 TWh today to 117 TWh by 2030, corresponding to
  • a biomethane share in gas demand for gas mobility of 40% and
  • a gas mobility share of new registrations in 2030 of 12% in passenger and light-duty transport, 25% in heavy duty transport, and 34% in bus transport.
However, the NGVA Europe in a report published in April underlines that the EU legislative framework on CO2 emission standards for new road vehicles focuses on tailpipe emissions in a “tank-to-wheel” approach.

Range of technological solutions is required

This approach favours electric vehicles because it assigns them zero emissions, irrespective of the CO2 emissions that occur during the production of the electricity. Renewable fuels such as biomethane have positive tailpipe emissions, however most of these emissions are bound during the production of the fuels.
The current “tank-to-wheel” approach does not compare the different technologies appropriately because it ignores emissions associated with the production of the fuel. It does not recognise the positive contribution of renewable fuels such as biomethane to climate protection, and thus biases one technology over others without a climate protection rationale.
According to NGVA instead of focusing on a single technology such as electrification, a range of technological solutions is required to achieve significant emission reductions in the near term.

Biomethane: 20 TWh in 2020 to 370 TWh by 2030

In the report, NGVA provides a comparison of carbon abatement costs for different road transport technologies considering emissions and costs along the value chain.

Biomethane supply within Europe could increase by 1850% to 2030

NGVA Europe cites data in its report that biomethane supply within Europe could increase from 20 TWh in 2020 to 370 TWh by 2030. There are also estimates in the potential for large increases in biomethane production based on feedstock availability. For example, Germany produced just under 10 TWh of biomethane in 2017, but could produce up to 116 TWh today from available manure and crop residues.
Beyond Europe, the global supply of biomethane is also expected to increase in the near-term. The IEA estimates that more than 8,140 TWh of biomethane could be produced sustainably today, rising to 11,630 TWh by 2040. This is equivalent to about 19% and 27% of global natural gas demand today respectively.
The full study can be downloaded as pdf here: NGVA Europe